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You are here: Home / Misc / India’s 2nd Wave of COVID: A Lesson in Exponential Growth

India’s 2nd Wave of COVID: A Lesson in Exponential Growth

April 24, 2021 By Bobby Voicu

India is going through what is, probably, the worst COVID wave in the world since the pandemic started.

What should make us pay attention, even in the countries that fare better now, is how fast things changed to the worst of the worst: in February India had 11,000 new COVID cases per day and now, in April, has more than 300,000/day.

It’s easy to forget what exponential growth means when you look at 500-600 cases per day in Portugal (where I live), but it’s so easy to get to huge numbers in a short period of time. Actually, Portugal just got out of a 3 months quite strict lockdown. We needed it because we jumped from less than 1,000 cases to 15,000 cases per day in less than 3 months (from late October to end of January), after not locking down for Christmas.

chart from here

Having this many new cases per day also means a better chance for the virus to mutate into a more resistant strain.

India’s total eclipsed the previous one-day high of 300,669 recorded coronavirus cases, set in the United States on Jan. 8, according to a New York Times database, though differences in testing levels from country to country, and a widespread lack of tests early in the pandemic, make comparisons difficult.

Over the past two months, the outbreak in India has exploded, with reports of superspreader gatherings, oxygen shortages and ambulances lined up outside hospitals because there were no ventilators for new patients.

More details on what happens in India here

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Bobby Voicu writes here from time to time.

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